#美联储货币政策# Recently, there has been a significant divergence in expectations for Fed rate cuts, which is worth following. According to forecasts from several investment banks, Powell may pave the way for a rate cut in September at the upcoming Jackson Hole meeting, but there are also opinions that the Fed's rate cuts this year are in doubt. Analysis of the data reveals that the biggest risk currently facing the U.S. is "stagflation," and simply cutting rates may not resolve this contradiction. From an on-chain perspective of capital flows, there remains considerable disagreement in the market regarding the direction of Fed policy. It is recommended to closely follow the signals from the meeting and subsequent economic data, and to cautiously assess the timing and extent of rate cuts' impact on the market.