According to the latest institutional analysis, members of the inflation faction within the Fed would only support a rate cut policy under the condition of weak employment data. The current core PCE index is still 100 basis points above the target level, making the prospect of a rate cut difficult to achieve for now. This view echoes the recent statements made by Fed officials Collins and Goolsbee, suggesting that they may only consider easing if the labor market deteriorates significantly. Although the probability of a rate cut in September remains at 75%, there is still uncertainty.

This policy orientation may put pressure on the short-term trends of major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum. Market sentiment is easily influenced by external factors, just like the recent discussions triggered by news about a certain well-known individual profiting from specific policies, which may lead to market fluctuations.

However, in the long run, the friendly policy stance of certain politicians towards cryptocurrencies, such as plans to urge the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to expedite the relevant regulatory process, may have a positive impact on the crypto market. This policy direction is expected to boost the long-term value of crypto assets.

In light of the current situation, investors should closely monitor the upcoming non-farm payroll data and avoid blindly entering the market with full positions. Exercising caution and conducting rational analysis remains a wise course of action in the current market environment.