CS:GO Item Market: A Reenactment of the Crypto World Story

Recently, as the hype around Meme coins gradually fades, some speculators have turned their attention to the CS:GO skin market. These former "Meme hunters" have transformed into "skin flippers," viewing CS:GO skins as a new wealth code.

CS:GO was released in August 2012, and the following year introduced the weapon case and skin system, allowing market trading, which laid the foundation for the cosmetic economy. After years of development, the CS:GO cosmetic market has remained prosperous.

However, in May 2025, the CS accessory market suddenly collapsed. The accessory index plummeted by 20% in three days, and the prices of several popular trading varieties were nearly halved, sparking heated discussions among users. This scene of market collapse is all too familiar to those who have experienced the crypto world.

Players who have long enjoyed stable profits from skin appreciation lost their joy overnight. This hyped market has shown its fragility; how did these skins, which resemble NFTs and have a downtrend similar to Meme coins, attract so many followers, and what impact will it bring?

Gaming and Earning Coexist

In April 2025, when the Meme coin market was rather unremarkable, the CS:GO skins market was booming, attracting the attention of many crypto world players.

This all dates back to the 2013 Arms Deal update. The skins (also known as "skins", essentially graphic overlays that modify the appearance of weapons in CS) released at that time could only be obtained through random drops.

This has opened the era of wealth games with "unboxing is a lottery". To obtain rare skins, players gradually began to trade spontaneously. The rise of skin trading websites further boosted market prosperity, forming an ecosystem that includes players, trading platforms, streamers, resellers, the black market, and data tools.

For most people, entering the CS:GO skin market was initially just for the gaming experience.

In 2019, Mantou, who was still in college, said: "After playing for a while, I wanted to buy skins." This is perfectly normal for CS:GO players.

For CS:GO players, skins are not just decorative items, but rather a form of social currency. High-quality or rare skins showcase a player's status within the community and satisfy vanity. This naturally creates a demand for the circulation of these items and fosters a corresponding market.

After understanding the market, Mantou noticed a significant increase in skin prices. As a university student at the time, he had the idea of "speculating on skins."

His first earnings weren't much: "At first, I made a few hundred bucks, and was happy for a few days."

For Mantou, buying skins and playing games go hand in hand. He doesn't have a specific trading strategy, "It's all about wanting to play and then going to buy to play." However, the fluctuations in the accessories market can also bring him back to the game; for instance, this April, he returned because he heard that "accessories are very popular."

In fact, CS:GO and its created skin economy do promote each other.

A well-known online personality once curiously studied the market economy derived from this game. He believes that the lasting wealth effect of the CS:GO skins market is closely related to the characteristics of the game itself.

"As a shooting game, the game mode of CS:GO is very simple and hasn't changed much compared to when it was first developed." Additionally, the frequent events held by the game developers stimulate interest, which can quickly attract old players back due to nostalgia and other factors.

While retaining old players, the promotion by esports streamers has also lowered the threshold, attracting a continuous stream of "new generation forces" (mainly college students) to join, forming an incremental market.

Vanity drives players to trade skin items, and the allure of making money attracts both new and old players continuously. The ability to earn while playing has become the best portrayal of the CS:GO game and the skin economy.

The Leap in Jewelry Prices

The price range of CS:GO's skin market is astonishing, ranging from ordinary skins worth a few yuan to rare treasures worth tens of thousands or even hundreds of thousands, together forming this unique ecosystem. This layering phenomenon is similar to the crypto world—ordinary skins are like "small coins," while top-tier items such as the Dragon Lore and Butterfly Knife are comparable to well-known projects in the NFT space, with their prices continually reaching new highs due to scarcity and consensus premium.

A large number of common weapon cases and ordinary quality skins are located at the lower end of the price spectrum, for example, certain weapon cases may only sell for about 2.5 RMB. These items are relatively easy to obtain, have a large supply, and are affordably priced, meeting the basic personalization needs of most players.

The price of accessories in the medium price range is usually between dozens to several hundred yuan. Accessories in this range often have better appearance design, a certain degree of rarity, or are suitable for more popular weapons.

In the high-end market, prices are growing exponentially, with jewelry priced in the thousands to tens of thousands of RMB being common. These are usually extremely rare knives, gloves, and those legendary or extremely rare top-tier gun skins. Some special weapon skins can be recommended at prices as high as around 130,000 RMB on second-hand platforms.

These high-priced accessories have exceeded the game items themselves and are regarded as collectibles and investment goods.

Overall, factors such as the appearance, wear level, rarity, style of the accessories, the operations of resellers, student holidays, new releases, and even the effects of streamers all affect their market prices. Platforms like the official game market and third-party trading websites also play a significant role in shaping the CS:GO skin market.

Even though influencing factors can be analyzed rationally, the severe fluctuations in the prices of accessories are still unexpected. This unpredictability is common in both the CS:GO accessories market and the crypto world.

When CS:GO announced its upcoming upgrade to CS2 in 2023, many high-priced skins and rare stickers saw a price increase. However, just a few months later, when CS2 officially launched, many skins experienced a significant drop in price due to changes in visual effects or adjustments to the drop mechanism, causing many players who bought at high prices to incur losses. This situation is similar to the price fluctuations of certain cryptocurrencies before and after specific events.

However, the price fluctuations and trading of accessories seem random and free, but they are actually controlled by the game developers. The entire economic ecosystem that has emerged around accessories must follow the rules set by the developers, who hold a dominant position in it.

A source familiar with the matter stated, "Game developers can control all probabilities and the rarity of each skin drop, and can also guide players to specific platforms." Even the display effects of skins in the game can change due to game updates. "The reason CS2 has such a significant impact on prices is that developers altered the display of certain skins in the game; some have become more attractive, while others have become less so," Mantou said.

In CS:GO, skins are potential investment items that can skyrocket in value, but in reality, the dominance of this market has always been in the hands of the game developers.

In extreme cases, there is a risk in the jewelry market of "suddenly the developers banning free trading of skins". As Mantou said: "You cannot control the changes in developer policies, and NFTs are actually easier to manipulate in this regard."

The Deja Vu of the Cryptocurrency Market

The investment properties of jewelry and its price fluctuations have made many cryptocurrency investors exclaim: "Isn't this just NFT!"

This comparison is not baseless; even the "play-to-earn" effect inadvertently achieved by CS:GO aligns with the "play to earn" model pursued by GameFi design.

Although CS:GO skins can be used in the game, this constitutes a difference in practicality from NFTs. Mantou stated that "some high-priced skins do look nice," but in reality, this is only a small part of their use.

"Skins have no actual function and do not even increase attack power". For most young players, accessories carry more complex psychological needs and social significance. They are a concentrated embodiment of the pursuit of aesthetics, face culture, and identity symbols, which is reminiscent of the role NFTs play in certain circles.

Professional accessory trading websites describe certain rare stickers by stating that they "are not just simple stickers, but a symbol of identity." "While they may not enhance your skills, they definitely improve your gaming experience and status."

Apart from the social identity symbol attributes, the two also share similarities in price drivers.

Some analysts indicate that the prices of certain items in CS:GO will increase due to their use by streamers and esports players. This celebrity effect is similar to the mechanism behind the price increase of NFTs.

The endorsement brought by well-known figures can drive NFT prices up, causing them to soar hundreds or even thousands of times in a short period. However, once market sentiment shifts, liquidity decreases, or negative news about the project emerges, NFT prices may plummet significantly in a short time, resulting in heavy losses for high-level buyers.

Coincidentally, after the price crash of CS:GO skins, the cryptocurrency and meme coin market has started to recover. Ethereum's 7-day increase is nearly 40%, breaking the $2500 mark, and several meme coins have also seen a rebound. Some speculate that funds are circulating between different virtual assets, creating an alternative "vampire effect." While it cannot be directly confirmed, this coincidence of fund movement has become a hot topic in the cryptocurrency community.

Opportunities and risks always coexist. Before May, CS:GO players who were steadily making profits have encountered an unprecedented price plunge.

The 50,000 RMB that Mantou previously earned from the appreciation of accessories has not only vanished overnight but has also turned into a loss of 70,000 RMB. When discussing his views on this decline, he appeared quite calm, having experienced the ups and downs of the crypto world. He believes that compared to the previous "slow decline" and sluggish trading volume, this wave of decline, although large, has decent trading volume. If it can attract more attention and gradually recover, it might be a good thing.

After all, from Meme coins to CS:GO items, the speculative stories of the virtual world will never end. The market, emotions, greed, and fear continuously cycle through different domains.

The only constant is that financial freedom is always out of reach, and there will always be someone to take over at a high position.