📊 Summary of the FOMC Meeting Minutes for July

🟢 The interest rate remains unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%. The Fed believes the current policy is still appropriate. Overall attitude: patient, waiting for more data, flexible in the face of both risks – high inflation and a weak labor market.

🟢 Inflation has not returned to 2%. Core PCE is around 2.7%, almost flat compared to last year. The Fed warns that the impact of tariffs could keep prices higher than expected.

🟢 Tariffs are a significant variable. They can both put upward pressure on prices and potentially reduce demand. The Fed believes it is difficult to predict accurately and that many upcoming quarters need to be observed.

🟢 The labor market remains stable, but is slowing down. The unemployment rate is 4.1%, which is not alarming yet but shows weakening signals. Real income is rising slowly, and consumption is cooling down.

🟢 Economic growth is slowing down. GDP in Q1 is negative, and Q2 has a slight improvement thanks to net exports. Business investment and real estate are weak.

🟢 Financial risk is increasing. Stock prices and risky assets are overvalued. Leverage at hedge funds is increasing, leading to concentrated risk. The Fed is also concerned about stablecoins and repo market volatility.

🟢 A new policy framework is about to be announced. The Fed will update its long-term goals statement in the fall, but emphasizes that the "core" commitment to price stability and maximum employment remains unchanged.