Uweb Live Class Summary Article for Issue 183: Afon Explains the Core Content of the Data Weekly Report

In the 183rd episode of the Uweb live course, Uweb distinguished alumnus and data weekly curator Afeng brought the audience an in-depth sharing on on-chain data. This episode of the live broadcast focuses on the data weekly from August 11 to August 18, 2025, and analyzes the on-chain data of Bitcoin (BTC) and other mainstream crypto assets, delving into the sources, importance, historical review, and guiding significance of on-chain data for future market trends. Below is a comprehensive summary of the content from this live broadcast, divided into several key topics for detailed discussion, and optimizations have been made for possible pronunciation or expression errors in the audio extraction script.

1. The essence and importance of on-chain data

2. What is on-chain data?

Afon first popularized the concept of on-chain data, pointing out that its core lies in the open and transparent nature of the Bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin, as a decentralized distributed ledger, records detailed information of every transaction, including the sending address, receiving address, and transaction amount. This data is all public, and anyone can query historical transaction records through a blockchain explorer. On-chain data analysis judges market sentiment and future market trends by observing fund flows, profit realization situations, and the behaviors of long-term and short-term coin holders.

Unlike traditional financial markets, which adopt an account balance settlement model (such as direct increases and decreases in bank account balances), Bitcoin uses the UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model. UTXO is the "change" that has not been used at a certain address in the Bitcoin ledger, essentially a certificate that records the generation time of Bitcoin and the price at that time. Afong emphasizes that the UTXO model allows on-chain data to clearly reflect the costs and behaviors of coin holders, providing important basis for investment decisions.

2. The Difference Between On-chain Data and Traditional Finance

The trading data of traditional financial markets is usually not public, and the account balance models of banks or brokerages are difficult to provide the transparency similar to Bitcoin's on-chain data. Every transaction of Bitcoin is recorded on the blockchain, publicly accessible, breaking the "dark forest rule" of traditional finance and forming a brand new asset logic. Afeng pointed out that the transparency of on-chain data allows market participants to reach consensus, thus more effectively promoting market development.

In addition, on-chain data analyzes market sentiment by examining the behaviors of long-term holders (those holding coins for more than 155 days) and short-term holders (those holding coins for less than 155 days). For example, long-term holders tend to hold rather than sell, while short-term holders are more inclined towards speculative trading. By observing the capital flows and profit realization of these groups, market trends can be inferred.

II. Historical Review and Accuracy of Data Weekly Reports

1. Weekly report review of four months

Afeng reviewed the performance of the data weekly report since its launch in April 2025, pointing out that it has gone through several stages including the main upward wave of the bull market, accumulation, consolidation, rebound, and correction. Through historical data verification, the trend judgment of the weekly report has been overall accurate, especially at the following key points:

From April 6 to May 11, 2025: The on-chain arbitrage curve shows a quick recovery after a small-scale loss, indicating that the market has bottomed out, suitable for swing trading, but not a primary upward wave.

From May 17 to July 7, 2025: BTC trend peaks, but due to long-term holders not selling, the decline is limited, missing the opportunity to build positions on the left side.

From July 14 to August 11, 2025: The weekly report clearly indicates the beginning of the main upward wave, but the room for increase is limited, as judged by the holdings of long-term and short-term holders and the Unspent Profit Loss (NUPL) indicator.

Starting from August 11, 2025: Last week's report indicated that BTC risks are emerging, and insufficient demand has led to a pullback, which is consistent with this week's market situation.

2. Limitations of on-chain data

Although on-chain data performs excellently in judging major trends, A Feng also admits its limitations: for ultra-short-term market conditions (such as specific declines or sideways movements), on-chain data cannot provide accurate predictions. This is because on-chain data reflects long-term trends and market sentiment more than short-term fluctuations.

3. Market Analysis and Core Indicator Interpretation for This Week

4. Market Review

This week BTC experienced a pullback, dropping about 2.5% from its peak, while Ethereum (ETH) fell from $4,800 to $4,300, with other major coins also generally retreating after reaching highs. Afeng pointed out through Crypto Bubble data that, except for OK Coin which saw an abnormal price increase due to token destruction, most coins are showing a pullback trend.

2. Behavior of Long-term and Short-term Coin Holders

Through the "Position Cycle Storm Chart", Afeng analyzed the behavioral changes of long-term holders (over 155 days) and short-term holders (under 155 days). This week, the distribution trend of long-term holders has slowed down, and the demand from short-term holders is also weakening. Meanwhile, long-term holders with a holding period of over one year (365 days) have shifted from distribution to accumulation, indicating a risk of short-term price decline.

Afon specifically explained why a new indicator for long-term holders over one year has been added: With institutional investors entering the market, their profit logic differs from traditional coin market manipulators. Institutions reduce distribution behavior by buying BTC in the crypto market and cashing out profits in the stock market, leading to a decrease in the sensitivity of the 155-day indicator. The indicator for long-term holders over one year can better reflect the guiding significance of institutional behavior on the market.

3. UTXO Energy Bands and Chip Distribution

The UTXO energy band is one of the core indicators of this week's report. By counting the BTC prices corresponding to UTXOs generated at different points in time, it reflects the distribution of chips. Afeng likens it to the process of "rock climbing": the current price range is the "cliff," the dense chip area below (such as $110,000) is the "supporting stone," and the sparse area above is the "resistance branch."

This week, BTC broke through the resistance range and entered a new turnover range, but the support level of 110,000 USD below is extremely strong, making it suitable for left-side positioning. Afeng emphasized that the main upward wave of BTC has not yet ended, as the market makers have only distributed 216,000 BTC, far from the previously accumulated 776,000, indicating that there is still room for growth.

4. Global Momentum Radar and Market Sentiment

The "Global Momentum Radar" analyzes the investment interests of investors in America, Europe, and Asia to determine the dominant forces in the market. Afon pointed out that the current sentiment among American and European investors is declining, while the sentiment among Asian investors is rising, creating a risk signal of "Asian take-up." If American sentiment warms up, BTC is expected to rebound and reach a new historical high.

5. On-chain Spread Curve and Profit Realization

The on-chain arbitrage curve reflects the profit situation during UTXO transfers. This week, the trend of profit realization has shown an upward trend, indicating that the market makers' distribution is still ongoing, but it has not yet reached historical peak levels (large-scale profit realization). Short-term holders lack confidence in profits, with an increase in loss positions, and a high proportion of speculative funds, necessitating caution against further correction risks.

6. Extreme Price Deviation and Liquidity Pulse

The newly added "Extreme Price Deviation" indicator determines overbought and oversold zones through the average cost of short-term holders (blue line) and the upper and lower standard deviations (upper and lower bands). The current BTC price is within a healthy range, not touching the upper band (overbought) or lower band (oversold), but if it falls below the cost line (zero value), it may trigger a significant pullback.

The "Liquidity Pulse Chart" shows a rebound in stablecoin issuance and exchange inflows, reflecting a moderate improvement in market demand for BTC, but spot trading volume remains tepid, indicating that there are still no signs of a peak.

4. Off-chain Data and Macroeconomic Expectations

5. Funding Rate Heatmap

The funding rate heatmap reflects the enthusiasm for leveraged trading. Currently, the funding rates for BTC and Ethereum are relatively low, with no signs of "hustle and bustle" overheating, indicating that the main upward wave still has room to grow.

2. Bitcoin Spot ETF

This week, the net inflow of ETFs was $550 million, an improvement from over $100 million last week, indicating a resurgence of interest from investors in the US. ETFs, due to their low fees and tax advantages, have become the main avenue for US investors to invest in BTC, and their inflow volume is an important indicator of demand.

3. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations

The market's expectation for a rate cut in September has reached a probability of 77%, which has a positive impact on BTC, U.S. stocks, and even the global stock market. The expectation of a rate cut will boost short-term demand and support BTC market.

5. Q&A Session and Frequently Asked Questions

During the Q&A session, Afeng responded to several key questions from the audience:

On-chain arbitrage curve misunderstanding: The audience mistakenly believes that all coin holders should have a 100% profit at historical highs. Ah Feng clarifies that this curve reflects the average profit level, not the number of profitable individuals, and the average profit at historical peaks is about 70%-75%.

Is exchange data included in on-chain statistics: The exchange's BTC reserves are on-chain, but user account balances are not directly recorded as on-chain transfers; UTXOs are only generated when withdrawals are made.

Differences between American and Asian investors: American investors dominate the pricing power of BTC, while Asian investors often play the role of "handing over the plate." Emotional differences are an important basis for judging trends.

Ethereum Price Prediction: Due to Ethereum adopting an account model instead of a UTXO model, on-chain data analysis is more challenging, making it difficult to accurately predict its peaks.

6. Summary and Outlook

Afeng summarized that BTC is currently in the mid-term of a major upward trend, and the distribution by long-term holders has not yet ended. The market makers still have a large amount of chips that have not been sold, and the support level (110,000 USD) is solid. There is a high possibility of an increase after a short-term correction. If investor sentiment in the Americas warms up, BTC is expected to continue to reach new highs, with the top expected around 150,000 USD (NUPL reaching 75%). However, caution is needed regarding the risk of Asian investors taking over and further corrections caused by insufficient confidence among short-term holders.

Afeng emphasized that the data weekly report aims to provide academic discussions and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should combine on-chain data, macro policies, and market sentiment to build an independent judgment system.