2025 Crypto Assets Industry Outlook Report

Looking ahead to 2025, there are seven key areas in the Crypto Assets industry worth paying attention to:

1. Bitcoin Enters Mainstream Finance

2024 is a milestone year for the development of Bitcoin. The official launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States marks a further integration of Bitcoin with the traditional financial system. Bitcoin's price has broken the $100,000 barrier for the first time, with several publicly traded companies and ETF products making large-scale purchases of Bitcoin.

The Bitcoin bull market in 2025 may peak in the third quarter. However, there are still uncertainties in the global economy; if a recession occurs, Bitcoin may be approaching the cycle top.

Bitcoin has regained focus in the industry, mainly reflected in three aspects:

• The Bitcoin ecosystem is actively developing, with new sidechains and staking technologies being launched.
• The Bitcoin ETF in the United States attracts the attention of traditional capital markets.
• The discussion of Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset has entered the mainstream political arena.

The dominant position of Bitcoin in the market continues to rise, accounting for nearly 60%. If interest rates remain high or the global economy faces a hard landing, Bitcoin's dominance may stay elevated.

2. Altcoins Perform Below Expectations

In 2024, the altcoin market faces challenges, with overall performance lagging behind Bitcoin. Major coins such as Solana and Ripple performed well, driving a 76% increase in the market capitalization of altcoins. Memecoins have become the best-performing category of altcoins, with a weighted average return rate exceeding 1600%.

However, technology-driven DeFi and smart contract projects are lagging behind. Ethereum, as a bellwether for altcoins, although it has introduced a spot ETF, is still significantly underperforming compared to Bitcoin.

The全面爆发 of altcoins will still take time. The trend of altcoins in 2025 will depend on the macroeconomic situation and regulatory policies.

3. Rapid Growth of RWA Tokenization

The RWA tokenization market is expected to grow by 85% in 2024, with a total value exceeding $19 billion. Private credit, government bonds, and real estate are the main sectors.

Technological advancements support the tokenization of RWA. Ethereum upgrades and Layer-2 optimizations have significantly reduced on-chain transaction costs, and the activity in the RWA secondary market has notably increased.

The RWA tokenization market is expected to reach $50 billion by 2025, with major growth coming from tokenized bonds and real estate. By 2030, the market size could reach $1.3 trillion.

4. DePIN and AI are developing rapidly, while DeSci is growing slowly.

In 2024, the revenue of DePIN projects will grow by more than 100 times, with the total number of devices exceeding 13 million. The market value of AI agents increased by 222% in the fourth quarter. DeSci grows the slowest, with the BIO protocol and OriginTrail accounting for 50% of the market value in this field.

In 2025, emerging technologies will deeply integrate with mainstream industries. The combination of AI and DePIN may dominate. AI agents will play a key role in content creation, DePIN will expand into the RWA market, but DeSci may encounter resistance from the traditional academic community.

5. Crypto Assets Stock Performance Divergence

The performance of crypto assets stocks in 2024 is a mixed bag. MicroStrategy's stock surged 400% due to its aggressive Bitcoin investment strategy. Marathon Digital raised $1 billion through the issuance of convertible bonds.

However, most mining companies have performed poorly after the Bitcoin halving. The prospects of the Crypto Assets industry in 2025 will depend on the macroeconomic situation and policy support.

Bitcoin mining companies adopting sustainable development strategies may attract more investment and achieve better financial performance by 2025.

6. Changes in the Regulation Landscape of Crypto Assets

The EU implements the MiCA framework, introducing strict compliance standards. The new measures eliminate user anonymity, favoring large enterprises but increasing costs for small businesses.

The US regulatory attitude has shifted to a friendly stance. The SEC's crackdown on Crypto Assets has weakened, and the "Financial Innovation and Technology Promotion Act" may limit the SEC's powers. These changes make the US more attractive to Crypto Assets enterprises.

In 2025, small encryption companies in Europe may face challenges and be forced to relocate their businesses overseas. The United States may become a new hub for Crypto Assets companies.

7. Strong Recovery of DeFi

By the end of 2024, DeFi began to recover, with total locked value increasing by 118% to reach $185 billion. DEX trading volume grew by 165%, and derivatives DEX trading volume increased by 328% year-on-year.

Liquidity staking and re-staking technology drive DeFi growth. The scale of related assets has doubled to 60 billion USD, accounting for 30% of the total locked value in DeFi. The proportion of re-staking has reached 14%.

It is expected that by 2025, the total locked value in DeFi will exceed $200 billion, and DEX trading volume is expected to surpass $4 trillion, accounting for 20% of the overall Crypto Assets spot trading volume.

Conclusion

2024 will be a turning point for the Crypto Assets industry, as the launch of Bitcoin ETFs marks the industry's move towards maturity. In 2025, the industry will usher in a year full of vitality and transformation. Bitcoin is expected to continue dominating the market, while altcoins and DeFi may see a new round of growth.

The development of the industry still faces uncertainty, depending on the macroeconomic environment, regulatory policies, and technological advancements. Key technological breakthroughs such as energy-efficient mining and blockchain interoperability will influence the future direction of the industry.