The macro environment and market liquidity are weak, and the Crypto Assets market has entered a defensive consolidation phase.

Recently, the Crypto Assets market has shown a volatile consolidation trend, primarily impacted by the dual effects of increased uncertainty in the macro environment and weakened market Liquidity.

The expectation of a delayed interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, rising tariffs, and geopolitical risks have suppressed market risk appetite. On the funding side, although there was a strong inflow at the beginning of the month, it subsequently turned negative, with a moderate increase in stablecoin issuance and a decrease in off-market premiums, reflecting a more cautious attitude among investors.

In this environment, Bitcoin shows relative resilience, but the upward momentum has weakened. Ethereum, on the other hand, presents signs of weak bottoming, with the ETH/BTC ratio continuing to be weak. The liquidity in the altcoin market further dries up, with risks continuing to be released, TOTAL2 and TVL declining in sync, and the market cap share of OTHERS breaking downward.

In terms of the macro economy, the scale of U.S. debt is enormous and the fiscal deficit continues to expand, raising concerns in the market about the long-term confidence in the dollar. Although the expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates has been delayed, the market still anticipates that rate cuts may begin in the second half of 2025. The recent strengthening of the dollar index puts certain pressure on Bitcoin.

On-chain data shows that the issuance of stablecoins has rebounded compared to the previous period, but it remains at a neutral and cautious level. The outflow of funds from Bitcoin ETFs reflects a shift in institutional investors' attitudes towards caution. The over-the-counter premium rate for stablecoins has dropped below 100%, entering a discount range, indicating a weakened willingness for capital entry. MicroStrategy has slowed down its pace of Bitcoin purchases, but the supply from long-term holders is still increasing, demonstrating that long-term capital confidence remains.

From a technical perspective, the price of Bitcoin has seen an increase in chip density above the $103,000 area, forming a new support range. In the short term, the market may continue to rebound, but the performance in terms of liquidity and sentiment is not favorable, which may limit the upward space.

In summary, the current market is in a defensive consolidation phase. It is recommended that investors maintain a defensive position allocation, closely monitor the changes in Ethereum's trend and the pace of capital inflow, and consider allocating to high-risk assets only after the market stabilizes.