🌹May interest rate meeting is coming: Bitcoin pump or dumping? The ETF wave spurs alts "10x dark horse + Chan theory chart explanation Lecture 21 (4-9 charts)👇

======================
Current Trend Analysis:
During this May Day holiday, the short-term high point rose to around 98000, but faced resistance and experienced a decline. The current price has retraced to around 93800. From a smaller time frame perspective, there are initial signs of a bottoming out. Pay attention to the emergence of clear bottoming signals.
====================== 
In the past two days, the entire market has been overshadowed by a bearish trend, with concerns about corrections for those who haven't reduced their positions, while those wanting to buy more are afraid of purchasing at a midpoint. Bitcoin and Ethereum have been oscillating at high levels for a whole week. I hope you can remain calm before a new trend emerges and buy cheaper tokens.
The position near 94500 for Bitcoin has become a resistance, suppressing the recovery. The support has dropped to around 91800, showing a trend of oscillating decline, with no signs of turning upward yet. Before a strong rebound, there is a high probability of another wave of accelerated volume dumping, which aligns with the saying "no breaking, no standing" (as shown in Figure 1).
======================
Ethereum is once again facing a test at the 1800 mark. Similar to Bitcoin, the area around 1810 has become a resistance, suppressing its rebound. The support below is around 1740, showing a trend of oscillation and correction. This support at 1740 is particularly crucial, determining whether the overall alts can continue to be bullish. Currently, it is still in a correction trend.
======================
🎉This Thursday at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate. Trump has repeatedly called for a rate cut, while more voices are advocating to keep it unchanged. This data will directly affect the short-term market trend and may also be a turning point. Everyone should be mentally prepared.
The market's predicted probabilities for the Federal Reserve not lowering interest rates in May and June are 97.2% and 65.1%, respectively. So far, the market still believes that the Fed will not lower interest rates in May, and this probability should be quite high. After the GDP and non-farm payroll data were released, expectations for not lowering interest rates in June have also increased. The market has begun to abandon the possibility of the Fed adjusting rates without a recession (as shown in Figure 2).
======================
The expectation of no interest rate cuts has already been anticipated. As for the possibility of rate cuts within the year, the previous economic and employment data met expectations, so it is estimated that a dovish stance may not be likely.
As for mentioning the pause in tapering, I guess old Powell won't say it so quickly. Other remarks are either neutral or slightly biased. Without significant dovish comments, it's hard to see a rise, which means there will be a pullback and fluctuation.
======================
🎉The K-line trend has stabilized around 93,100 since the 25th, and looking at the URPD data chart, there is also a huge amount of chips accumulated here at 93,100. For now, it can still fluctuate above 93,100. Let's see the market sentiment after the opening of the US stock market, as well as the market's expectations for the interest rate meeting and the actual speech from old Powell. (As shown in the image 3)
======================
It is still a low liquidity moment, and the price is slightly declining.
Unless the event stimulates negative sentiment, the downward trend will become clearer, but it hasn't happened yet. So let's observe for now.
======================
 🎉Some news and data for this week
Monday: The non-manufacturing PMI is expected to be between 50.5-51.5, slightly above 50 but with weak growth (above 50 is bullish)
Tuesday: If the central bank governor hints at the forum that "inflation is still high and high interest rates need to be maintained," it may strengthen hawkish expectations, which would be bearish. If he mentions "economic weakness and the need for easing," the market may bet on rate cuts in advance, which would be bullish for the stock market and cryptocurrencies. Powell may also make a statement at the forum.
======================
 🎉Recently, the cryptocurrency circle has been lively, everyone is talking about the ETF altcoin season, many people want to ask: Can XRP ride this wave and pump significantly?
======================
A few days ago, it suddenly spread online that "the US SEC approved the XRP spot ETF," and the price of XRP immediately rose by 5%. However, it soon fell back, and everyone realized it was a false report. In fact, ProShares in the US plans to launch three XRP-related ETFs on April 30, but these ETFs do not buy XRP directly; instead, they aim to profit from betting on the rise and fall of XRP futures prices — there are three types: 2x long, 1x short, and 2x short.
======================
Now the United States has 4 XRP ETFs, all of which are futures products, with no spot products. However, on April 25, Brazil took the lead in launching the XRP spot ETF. In addition, on May 19, the Chicago Exchange will also launch the XRP futures, which may be preparing for the future push of spot ETFs.
======================
🎉The question is here, when will the US SEC approve the XRP spot ETF? Companies like Grayscale have long submitted applications, but the SEC has not budged. Now that the ETF altcoin season is approaching, there are over 70 ETF applications waiting in line, and everyone is hoping that the new SEC chairman will loosen the approval process.
======================
Next, XRP, Sol, and LTC are seen as key focus objects, while Doge, Bonk, and PENGU are also riding the ETF heat. But to be honest, the speculation is likely just to harvest retail investors. In comparison, XRP has a market cap of 134.5 billion, and SOL has a market cap of 76.9 billion. In terms of scale and ecological development, the possibility of SOL rising in price later might be greater.
======================

This article only provides personal opinions.
#sol# #virtual# #sui# #eth# #btc#